Thursday, January 22, 2009

Learning rates

We closed out Heroic Naxx about 2 hours into the raid last night, meaning we cleared it in about 5 hours total. Last week, we needed a 3rd night to finish up and didn't have time for Sartharian after, suggesting it took about 9 hours.

Now skill learning improvements typically follow a power law curve, which is linear in log-log space. So it's not to hard to extrapolate the trajectory that if we continue to improve at the same rate, it should take us around 3.5 hours to clear Heroic Naxx next week -- check the math yourself if you don't believe me. :)

In spite of the fact that I haven't seen power law improvement rates applied to team learning like raiding, I don't think that's a half-bad estimate. It'll mean that we'll have a nice chunk of time next week to work some more on Sartharian +1. It felt like we made some progress in the hour we spent on it last night, but it's going to take some more practice, I think.

I think we made the right decision to take down Sarth w/o a drake in the end. We'll focus the next 2 raid nights on reclearing Naxx-10 and hopefully still having enough time to go finish off Malygos.

I'll probably take tonight off. Thursday is a good rest night for me and I'm planning to spend time each Friday morning in my son's kindergarten class. And even though I'm often late Fri & Sat, I think I'm actually going to try to push for either the gear runs I still need (regular HoL for the tanking trinket, heroic UP for the sword) or start working down my woefully incomplete list of heroics beaten. I've really run hardly any instances at all since we started raiding. I've been content to rep and food farm or do dailies, but I do eventually want to knock off some of the dungeon achievements.

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